Table A4: GO Relief Services
|
|
Danforth/ Main |
Bloor/ Dundas W |
Kipling/ Bloor |
Kennedy/ Eglinton |
|
Capital Cost $m NPV |
$ -100 |
$ -10 |
$ -10 |
$ -50 |
|
O&M Cost $m NPV |
$ -32 |
$ -25 |
$ -50 |
$ -52 |
|
TOTAL COSTS $m NPV |
$ -132 |
$ -35 |
$ -60 |
$ -102 |
|
Riders diverted to GO per day |
10,000 |
5,000 |
2,500 |
2,500 |
|
GO O&M cost per rider diverted |
$-0.14 |
$-0.22 |
$-0.87 |
$-0.91 |
|
New TTC riders per diverted rider |
0.50 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
0.50 |
|
New daily TTC Riders |
5,000 |
500 |
250 |
1,250 |
|
Incremental GO revenue per diverted rider |
$- |
$- |
$2.00 |
$2.00 |
|
Incremental TTC revenue per new rider |
$2.50 |
$2.50 |
$2.50 |
$2.50 |
|
Incremental TTC + GO revenue $m NPV |
$ 72 |
$ 7 |
$ 32 |
$ 47 |
|
NET FUNDING GAP $m NPV |
$ -61 |
$ -28 |
$ -28 |
$ -56 |
|
Net cost per new daily rider |
-$12,111 |
-$55,581 |
-$110,081 |
-$44,503 |
|
Time savings and decongestion benefit per diverted rider (net of fares) |
$2.00 |
$1.00 |
$1.00 |
$3.00 |
|
Time savings and decongestion benefits $m NPV |
$ 115 |
$ 29 |
$ 14 |
$ 43 |
|
Road user benefits per new TTC rider |
$2.00 |
$1.00 |
$1.00 |
$3.00 |
|
Auto user benefits $m NPV |
$ 58 |
$ 3 |
$ 1 |
$ 22 |
|
TOTAL BENEFITS $m NPV |
$ 246 |
$ 40 |
$ 49 |
$ 114 |
|
NET BENEFITS $m NPV |
$ 114 |
$ 5 |
$ -11 |
$ 12 |
|
Benefit:Cost Ratio |
1.86 |
1.14 |
0.82 |
1.12 |
|
Annualization factor |
250 |
|
|
|
|
NPV factor |
23 |
|
|
|
|
Road benefit per diverted rider |
$5.00 |
|
|
|
|
Average TTC fare |
$ 2 |
|
|
|
We estimate costs to operate "relief services" as follows. The "reference case" as set out in Appendix 5 of the GO Electrification Study[1] is an expanded 333-mile (532-km) rail system with 489 train starts per day. This seems to essentially be, the expanded network, with half-hourly all-day service using 10-car push-pull trains. Unfortunately, GO does not provide the total train-km in any of their documents. However, we calculate that it implies 19,022 train-km each weekday on the Lakeshore lines (east and west) (from GO Technical Appendix 5 Table 2), or 4.8 million train-km per year. From GO Technical Appendix 8C, Table 8C-2-D, weekend, holiday and non-revenue train-km are estimated at 35% of the weekday, so the grand total for the Lakeshore routes is 6.4 million train-km. Electricity cost for the Lakeshore routes is estimated in the same table as costing $12.5 million per year, or just under $2 per train-km.
Annual maintenance costs are estimated in Table 8C-1-B at $1.7 million per train per year. GO Technical Appendix 5 Table 3 indicates 37 trains are required to operate the Lakeshore, so each train would operate about 130,000 km per year. Assuming half of maintenance costs are mileage-related, the cost per increment train-km would be $6.53.
GO train crew costs are understood to be about $180 per train hour, although we think this can be reduced to $110, potentially less, with more efficient labour practices.