Table A11: 905 Region BRT and LRT Schemes
|
|
Mississauga Hurontario LRT Option 1 |
Mississauga Dundas Street Option 4 |
Brampton Queen Street Option 1A |
VIVA Rapidways Option 2 |
Durham - Scarborough Option 1 |
Mississauga 403 |
|
Route km |
20.8 |
40 |
23.7 |
|
36 |
|
|
Infrastructure Capital Cost $m NPV |
$ -1,022 |
$ -369 |
$ -523 |
$ -1,509 |
$ -366 |
$ -259 |
|
Operating Costs (incremental) $m NPV |
$ -185 |
$ -97 |
$ -221 |
$ -263 |
$ -78 |
$ -55 |
|
TOTAL COSTS NPV |
$ -1,207 |
$ -466 |
$ -744 |
$ -1,772 |
$ -444 |
$ -314 |
|
Total daily riders 2021 |
63,900 |
37,800 |
24,000 |
101,000 |
40,000 |
28,306 |
|
of which new riders |
40% |
30% |
28% |
8% |
30% |
50% |
|
New daily riders 2021 |
25,560 |
11,340 |
6,600 |
7,667 |
12,000 |
14,153 |
|
Average fare per new daily rider |
0.94 |
0.95 |
2.42 |
1.95 |
0.48 |
|
|
Incremental revenues $m NPV |
$ 105 |
$ 47 |
$ 69 |
$ 65 |
$ 25 |
$ 18 |
|
NET FINANCIAL EFFECT $m NPV |
$ -1,102 |
$ -419 |
$ -675 |
$ -1,707 |
$ -419 |
$ -296 |
|
Auto operating cost savings |
$ 569 |
$ 350 |
$ 110 |
$ 52 |
$ 269 |
$ 190 |
|
Road user benefit per new transit rider |
$ 5.62 |
$ 7.83 |
|
$ 2.07 |
|
|
|
Road user benefits $m NPV |
$ 625 |
$ 386 |
|
$ 69 |
|
|
|
Passenger time saving (minutes) |
$19.16 |
$10.83 |
|
$15.35 |
|
|
|
Total travel time benefits $m NPV |
$ 1,779 |
$ 772 |
$ 443 |
$ 1,530 |
$ 229 |
$ 162 |
|
Passenger Benefits $m NPV |
$ 1,154 |
$ 386 |
|
$ 1,461 |
|
|
|
TOTAL BENEFITS $m NPV (fares) |
$ 1,884 |
$ 819 |
$ 512 |
$ 1,595 |
$ 254 |
$ 180 |
|
NET BENEFITS $m NPV (fares) |
$ 677 |
$ 353 |
$ -232 |
$ -177 |
$ -190 |
$ -134 |
|
BENEFIT COST RATIO (fares) |
1.56 |
1.76 |
0.69 |
0.90 |
0.57 |
0.57 |
|
TOTAL BENEFITS $m NPV (auto costs) |
$ 2,348 |
$ 1,122 |
$ 553 |
$ 1,582 |
$ 498 |
|
|
NET BENEFITS $m NPV (auto costs) |
$ 1,141 |
$ 656 |
$ -191 |
$ -190 |
$ 54 |
|
|
BENEFIT COST RATIO (auto cost) |
1.95 |
2.41 |
0.74 |
0.89 |
1.12 |
|
|
Growth to 2033 with complementary policies |
2.00 |
2.00 |
3.00 |
2.00 |
4.00 |
|
|
New daily riders 2033 |
51,120 |
22,680 |
19,800 |
15,333 |
48,000 |
28,306 |
|
Net cost per new daily rider 2033 |
$ -21,557 |
$ -18,479 |
$ -34,076 |
$ -111,326 |
$ -8,723 |
$ -10,468 |
Capital and operating costs, and road user and passenger benefits are from the Metrolinx BCAs. Passenger time savings, road user benefits, and average fare per new rider are derived from these. We have had to make some estimates because most of the BCAs do not explicitly report the incremental and total daily ridership that is forecast.
Mississauga Dundas: Peak-hour ridership figures are given for four alternative schemes but not for the Base Case. The Metrolinx Next Wave Fact Sheet says ridership will be 13 million in 2031; assuming annual traffic is 300 times the daily, then daily traffic is about 9 times peak-hour traffic at the peak point. At least 30% must be incremental, because this is the difference between Option 4 and the worst option. This gives a plausible figure of $5.62 road user benefits per new transit rider. The implied time saving of 19 minutes per passenger seems high but plausible: according to the data in the BCA, end-to-end trip times will be about 38 minutes versus just over one hour today by bus. Most passengers, however, will not be travelling the full length of the route. Some will benefit from higher frequencies but some will need to make an additional transfer, from a feeder bus. The fare of $1.95 for per incremental passenger seems reasonable.
Hurontario Main: As with Mississauga Dundas Street, we have had to derive daily and incremental ridership, which appears to be at least 40% of the total, as this is the increment over the least ambitious scheme.
Brampton Queen Street: peak point hourly and total daily boardings are given for the base case and each option.
VIVA: The daily figures are given for the VIVA schemes, as is the base case (do nothing) ridership so we can work out that incremental ridership is about 8%.
Durham Scarborough: The Metrolinx Fact Sheet predicts 2031 annual ridership of 18 million. Allowing 50% growth from 2021, and annualization of 300,this implies 40,000 passengers per day. The more detailed BCA does give a daily or annual figure, but indicates an a.m. peak-hour load of 2,500 (both directions), suggesting a multiple of 16, much higher than for the other schemes.
Mississauga 403: Metrolinx has not published a BCA, only a fact sheet quoting the capital costs. We assume the scheme has similar costs.