Urban Growth Centres

The Growth Plan identifies 25 Urban Growth Centres across the region and sets density targets for each one: these historic downtowns and emerging suburban centres are to achieve a density of between 150 and 400 people and jobs per hectare by 2031, depending on their growth potential, development opportunities, and surrounding context. Two-thirds of the Urban Growth Centres are located in the GTHA (Inner Ring). Of the eight Urban Growth Centres in the Outer Ring, four are in Waterloo and Niagara Regions. Figure 3.8 indicates the location of the Urban Growth Centres in the GGH.

Urban Growth Centres are to be "planned as focal areas for investment in institutional and region-wide public services, as well as [other] uses...to accommodate and support major transit infrastructure, to...attract provincially, nationally or internationally significant employment uses...[and] to accommodate a significant share of population and employment growth."[1]

Figure 3.8: Location of Urban Growth Centres

Table 3.8 lists the Urban Growth Centres, their density in 2006, the minimum target density specified by the Growth Plan, and the minimum target density target set by each municipality. The growth required to meet the target for each Urban Growth Centre was determined by calculating the difference between the actual 2006 density and the 2031 targeted density based on the geographic area of each Urban Growth Centre.

Some Urban Growth Centres have already met or exceeded the minimum target set by the Growth Plan, while others must substantially increase density and attract considerable new development to achieve the target. There is also wide variation in the geographic area covered by each Urban Growth Centre, which influences the amount of growth required to meet the density target. For example, Downtown Toronto is the largest Urban Growth Centre at 2,120 ha and Newmarket is the smallest at 47 ha, which is 45 times smaller than the Downtown Toronto area. Combined, the five urban growth centres in Toronto require 345,000 new people and jobs to meet their minimum density targets, representing 50% of the total growth in the 25 Urban Growth Centres across the GGH to 2031.

Five of the 25 Urban Growth Centres must increase their density by at least 400%, and 15 must increase the density by at least 100% to meet the minimum target. The Vaughan Metropolitan Centre is required to increase the number of people and jobs in its Urban Growth Centre by 900% (18,720) to achieve the minimum density target (200 people and jobs per hectare), the greatest increase among all 25 Urban Growth Centres. By comparison, Downtown Kitchener needs to increase the number of people and jobs by only 48% (5,980) between now and 2031 to achieve the same target.

Table 3.8: Urban Growth Centre minimum density targets

Source: Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure, How is the Growth Plan Working so Far? Revitalizing Downtowns - Urban Growth Centre Progress, February 14, 2013, https://www.placestogrow.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25..., retrieved October 1, 2013.

¹ The increase in population and jobs (2006-2031) required for each Urban Growth Centre to achieve its minimum density target was calculated by the Neptis Foundation.

Do these numbers matter? Certainly municipalities should, if possible, direct growth to areas in which it can contribute to transit use, support other public services, and attract major employers. However, the Urban Growth Centres, while they can contribute to strengthening downtowns, are but one of a number of areas to which intensification should be directed (along with major transit station areas and intensification corridors) and to some extent can be considered part of the general intensification target. Also, municipalities are required only to plan to achieve the targets by 2031, rather than to report on results each year, as with the overall intensification target, and there is no minimum ratio of people and jobs.

It is not clear how municipalities are expected to meet the minimum Urban Growth Centre density targets, particularly the smaller, slower-growing centres in the Outer Ring, where there are relatively few development applications and limited growth pressures. Nor is it entirely clear how these targets fit with other requirements of the Plan such as intensification or designated greenfield area targets. Nothing in the Growth Plan suggests that growth in other parts of a municipality should be limited or halted if the Urban Growth Centre minimum density targets are not being achieved.