The minimum density target of 50 people and jobs per hectare combined for development in designated greenfield areas may be difficult to monitor. There is no requirement to achieve the target annually, and the Growth Plan states that new developments "will be planned to achieve"[1] the minimum density. In other words, municipalities do not need to demonstrate that the intended densities have actually been achieved.
Since the target is measured over the entire designated greenfield area of each upper- or single-tier municipality, some greenfield areas may be planned for densities higher than 50 people and jobs per hectare, and some will have lower densities.[2] Moreover, lower minimum density targets are permitted in Outer Ring municipalities that do not contain an Urban Growth Centre.[3]
Table 3.7 at the end of this section lists the minimum designated greenfield area density targets for municipalities across the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The following observations summarize the main points.
First, all Inner Ring municipalities (upper- and single-tier) have adopted the 50 people and jobs per hectare minimum target. As with the intensification targets, the minimum greenfield area density target is irrelevant in the City of Toronto because there is no remaining supply of greenfield land (see Figure 3.4).
Second, of the 15 upper- or single-tier municipalities in the Outer Ring, five have adopted the required minimum, nine have chosen to use lower alternative density targets (ranging from 29 to 39 people and jobs per hectare), and only one (Waterloo Region) has proposed to exceed the minimum requirements of the Growth Plan (55 people and jobs per hectare), the only municipality to do so.
Third, as with intensification targets, there is no obvious connection between the minimum designated greenfield area density targets and growth rates or population and employment forecasts (see Table 3.6). For example, Simcoe County is forecast to add 162,000 people by 2031 and has set a greenfield area density target of 39 people and jobs per hectare, even though Simcoe County has similar growth characteristics to Hamilton, Barrie, Waterloo, and Niagara, each of which used the 50 people-and-jobs-per-hectare target.
Fourth, decisions about targets at the lower-tier level are very much controlled by upper-tier municipalities, and those municipalities exhibit a range of perspectives and attitudes toward the density of greenfield area development. The differences result in a patchwork of targets. Figure 3.5 summarizes the differences among the lower-tier municipalities.
Figure 3.4: Adoption of minimum designated greenfield area density targets by upper- and single-tier municipalities
Table 3.6: Minimum designated greenfield area density targets and population and employment forecasts for single- and upper-tier municipalities
|
Upper- and Single-Tier Municipalities |
2001 Population Forecast1 |
2031 Population Forecast1 |
Forecast Population Increase 2001-2031 |
Forecast Population Increase 2001-2031 (%) |
2041 Population Forecast2 |
Forecast Population Increase 2001-2041 |
Forecast Population Increase 2001-2041 (%) |
Minimum Greenfield Area Density Target3 |
|
City of Toronto |
2,590,000 |
3,080,000 |
490,000 |
19% |
3,400,000 |
810,000 |
31% |
Not Applicable4 |
|
Region of Durham |
530,000 |
960,000 |
430,000 |
81% |
1,190,000 |
660,000 |
125% |
50 p+j/ha |
|
Region of York |
760,000 |
1,500,000 |
740,000 |
97% |
1,790,000 |
1,030,000 |
136% |
50 p+j/ha |
|
Region of Peel |
1,030,000 |
1,640,000 |
610,000 |
59% |
1,970,000 |
940,000 |
91% |
50 p+j/ha |
|
Region of Halton |
390,000 |
780,000 |
390,000 |
100% |
1,000,000 |
610,000 |
156% |
50 p+j/ha |
|
City of Hamilton |
510,000 |
660,000 |
150,000 |
29% |
780,000 |
270,000 |
53% |
50 p+j/ha |
|
County of Northumberland |
80,000 |
96,000 |
16,000 |
20% |
110,000 |
30,000 |
38% |
30 p+j/ha |
|
County of Peterborough |
56,000 |
61,000 |
5,000 |
9% |
76,000 |
20,000 |
36% |
35 p+j/ha (40 p+j/ha by 2015) |
|
City of Peterborough |
74,000 |
88,000 |
14,000 |
19% |
115,000 |
41,000 |
55% |
50 p+j/ha |
|
City of Kawartha Lakes |
72,000 |
100,000 |
28,000 |
39% |
107,000 |
35,000 |
49% |
40 p+j/ha |
|
County of Simcoe |
254,000 |
416,000 |
162,000 |
64% |
497,000 |
243,000 |
96% |
39 p+j/ha |
|
City of Barrie |
108,000 |
210,000 |
102,000 |
94% |
253,000 |
145,000 |
134% |
50 p+j/ha |
|
City of Orillia |
30,000 |
41,000 |
11,000 |
37% |
46,000 |
16,000 |
53% |
42 p+j/ha |
|
County of Dufferin |
53,000 |
80,000 |
27,000 |
51% |
85,000 |
32,000 |
60% |
44 p+j/ha |
|
County of Wellington |
85,000 |
122,000 |
37,000 |
44% |
140,000 |
55,000 |
65% |
40 p+j/ha |
|
City of Guelph |
110,000 |
175,000 |
65,000 |
59% |
191,000 |
81,000 |
74% |
50 p+j/ha |
|
Region of Waterloo |
456,000 |
729,000 |
273,000 |
60% |
835,000 |
379,000 |
83% |
55 p+j/ha |
|
County of Brant |
35,000 |
47,000 |
12,000 |
34% |
57,000 |
22,000 |
63% |
35 p+j/ha (40 p+j/ha by 2021) |
|
City of Brantford |
94,000 |
126,000 |
32,000 |
34% |
163,000 |
69,000 |
73% |
50 p+j/ha |
|
County of Haldimand |
46,000 |
56,000 |
10,000 |
22% |
64,000 |
18,000 |
39% |
29 p+j/ha |
|
Region of Niagara |
427,000 |
511,000 |
84,000 |
20% |
610,000 |
183,000 |
43% |
50 p+j/ha |
1 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, January 2012, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.
2 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, June 2013, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.
3 Upper- and single-tier municipal official plans and correspondence between the Minister of Infrastructure and upper- and single-tier municipalities, See Table 3.7
4 The City of Toronto contains no designated greenfield area lands.
In the Inner Ring, York and Durham Regions, and in the Outer Ring, Waterloo Region and Wellington and Peterborough Counties have elected to apply a uniform density target across all their constituent lower-tier municipalities that is identical to the upper-tier target. All other upper-tier municipalities in the Inner and Outer Rings have elected to apply non-uniform targets to their lower-tier municipalities.
Figure 3.5: Minimum designated greenfield area density targets assigned to lower-tier municipalities
Table 3.7 illustrates some anomalies in the targets assigned to lower-tier municipalities. For example, within Peel and Halton, different density targets have been determined for each of the lower tiers. Peel has set the highest target for its largest and most developed municipality, Mississauga, which seems logical, even though its designated greenfield area is only 189 hectares. Halton has set the highest density for its second-smallest municipality (Milton), which is surprising, given the small size, low density of historical development, and more rural character of the community. Also surprising is the fact that the well-established Inner Ring cities of Oakville and Burlington in Halton Region are permitted to grow on designated greenfield lands at levels below the stated minimum of 50 people and jobs per hectare, while the more rural Townships of Wainfleet and West Lincoln in Niagara Region in the Outer Ring are expected to achieve the minimum of 50 people and jobs per hectare. Taken together, these upper-tier decisions do not constitute a consistent approach to regional growth management.
It is not clear what factors the Minister used to justify the decision to permit lower minimum designated greenfield area density targets for certain municipalities. The correspondence from the Ministry of Infrastructure to the affected municipalities provides no explanation or justification.
Table 3.7: Minimum designated greenfield area density targets, by municipality
|
Municipalities |
Minimum Designated Greenfield Area Density Target (people + jobs per hectare) |
Source |
|
City of Toronto |
Not Applicable |
- |
|
Region of Durham |
50 |
Regional Official Plan Amendment No. 128, Annotated Consolidation (as approved by the OMB on January 9, 2013 Board Order) |
|
City of Pickering |
50 |
|
|
City of Ajax |
50 |
|
|
City of Whitby |
50 |
|
|
City of Oshawa |
50 |
|
|
Town of Clarington |
50 |
|
|
Township of Uxbridge |
50 |
|
|
Township of Brock |
50 |
|
|
Township of Scugog |
50 |
|
|
Region of York |
50 |
York Region Official Plan, 2010, Annotated Version Showing Policy Status, Office Consolidation January 14, 2013 |
|
City of Vaughan |
50 |
|
|
Town of Richmond Hill |
50 |
|
|
Town of Aurora |
50 |
|
|
City of Markham |
50 |
|
|
City of Newmarket |
50 |
|
|
Township of King |
50 |
|
|
Town of Whitchurch-Stouffville |
50 |
|
|
Town of East Gwillimbury |
50 |
|
|
Town of Georgina |
50 |
|
|
Region of Peel |
50 |
Peel Region Official Plan, Working Draft Office Consolidation, February 2013 |
|
Town of Caledon |
42 |
|
|
City of Brampton |
51 |
|
|
City of Mississauga |
77 |
|
|
Region of Halton |
50 |
Halton Official Plan (2009), ROPA 38, December 16, 2009 |
|
Town of Halton Hills |
39 |
|
|
Town of Milton |
58 |
|
|
City of Oakville |
46 |
|
|
City of Burlington |
45 |
|
|
City of Hamilton |
50 |
Urban Hamilton Official Plan, March 16, 2011 |
|
County of Northumberland |
30 |
Letter from Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Brad Duguid to County of Northumberland Warden, Peter Celanty, August 13, 2010 |
|
Town of Brighton |
25 |
|
|
Town of Cobourg |
35 |
|
|
Municipality of Port Hope |
35 |
|
|
Town of Trent Hills |
25 |
|
|
Township of Alnwick/Haldimand |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of Cramahe |
25 |
|
|
Township of Hamilton |
Not Applicable |
|
|
County of Peterborough |
35 (40 in 2015) |
Letter from Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Gerry Phillips to County of Peterborough Warden, Ronald Gerow, November 12, 2009 |
|
Township of Asphodel-Norwood |
35 (40 in 2015) |
|
|
Township of Cavan-Monaghan |
35 (40 in 2015) |
|
|
Township of Douro-Dummer |
35 (40 in 2015) |
|
|
Township of Galway-Cavendish and Harvey |
35 (40 in 2015) |
|
|
Township of Havelock-Belmont-Methuen |
35 (40 in 2015) |
|
|
Township of North Kawartha |
35 (40 in 2015) |
|
|
Township of Otonabee-South Monaghan |
35 (40 in 2015) |
|
|
Township of Smith-Ennismore-Lakefield |
35 (40 in 2015) |
|
|
City of Peterborough |
50 |
City of Peterborough Official Plan, Office Consolidation December 31, 2009 |
|
City of Kawartha Lakes |
40 |
Letter from Minister of Infrastructure, Bob Chiarelli, to City of Kawartha Lakes Mayor, Ric McGee, Mar. 30, 2011 |
|
County of Simcoe |
39 |
Letter from Minister of Infrastructure and Minister of Transportation, Bob Chiarelli to County of Simcoe Warden, Cal Patterson, July 9, 2012 |
|
Town of Bradford West Gwillimbury |
35 |
|
|
Town of Collingwood |
50 |
|
|
Town of Innisfil |
32 |
|
|
Town of Midland |
50 |
|
|
Town of New Tecumseth |
50 |
|
|
Town of Penetanguishene |
50 |
|
|
Town of Wasaga Beach |
32 |
|
|
Township of Adjala-Tosorontio |
32 |
|
|
Township of Clearview |
32 |
|
|
Township of Essa |
32 |
|
|
Township of Oro-Medonte |
32 |
|
|
Township of Severn |
32 |
|
|
Township of Springwater |
32 |
|
|
Township of Ramara |
32 |
|
|
Township of Tay |
32 |
|
|
Township of Tiny |
32 |
|
|
City of Barrie |
50 |
City of Barrie Official Plan, April 2010, Office Consolidation March 2011 |
|
City of Orillia |
42 |
Letter from Minister of Energy & Infrastructure, Brad Duguid to City of Orillia Mayor, Ron Stevens, Apr. 20, 2010 |
|
County of Dufferin |
44 |
Letter from Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Brad Duguid to County of Dufferin Warden, Allen Taylor, August 13, 2010 |
|
Town of Mono |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Town of Orangeville |
46 |
|
|
Town of Shelburne |
41 |
|
|
Township of Amaranth |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of East Garafraxa |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of East Luther-Grand Valley |
44 |
|
|
Township of Melancthon |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of Mulmur |
Not Applicable |
|
|
County of Wellington |
40 |
Letter from Deputy Premier, George Smitherman to County of Wellington Warden, Joanne Ross-Zuj, Aug. 21, 2009 |
|
Township of Centre Wellington |
40 |
Wellington County Official Plan, February 24, 2011 |
|
Township of Erin |
40 |
|
|
Town of Guelph/Eramosa |
40 |
|
|
Township of Mapleton |
40 |
|
|
Township of Minto |
40 |
|
|
Town of Puslinch |
40 |
|
|
Township of Wellington North |
40 |
|
|
City of Guelph |
50 |
Official Plan Amendment 39: Conformity with the Planning Framework of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, March 17, 2010 |
|
Region of Waterloo |
55 |
Waterloo Region Official Plan, January 24, 2011 |
|
City of Waterloo |
55 |
|
|
City of Kitchener |
55 |
|
|
City of Cambridge |
55 |
|
|
Township of Woolwich |
55 |
|
|
Township of Wellesley |
55 |
|
|
Township of Wilmot |
55 |
|
|
Township of North Dumfries |
55 |
|
|
County of Brant |
35 by 2012 (40 in 2021) |
Letter from Minister of Infrastructure, Bob Chiarelli to County of Brant Mayor, Ron Eddy, March 31, 2011 |
|
City of Brantford |
50 |
City of Brantford Official Plan, Consolidation Sept. 2011 |
|
County of Haldimand |
29 |
Letter from Minister of Infrastructure, Bob Chiarelli to County of Haldimand Warden, Ken Hewitt, Mar. 20, 2011 |
|
Region of Niagara |
50 |
Region of Niagara Sustainable Community Policies: Places to Grow/2005 Provincial Policy Statement Conformity and Niagara 2031 Amendment, Amendment 2-2009 of the Official Plan for the Niagara Planning Area as approved on May 28, 2009 by Regional Council and amended through the addition of Policy 4.6.6. |
|
City of Niagara Falls |
50 |
|
|
City of Port Colborne |
50 |
|
|
City of St. Catharines |
50 |
|
|
City of Thorold |
50 |
|
|
City of Welland |
50 |
|
|
Town of Fort Erie |
50 |
|
|
Town of Grimsby |
50 |
|
|
Town of Lincoln |
50 |
|
|
Town of Niagara-on-the-Lake |
50 |
|
|
Town of Pelham |
50 |
|
|
Township of Wainfleet |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of West Lincoln |
50 |
Figure 3.6 indicates those municipalities that were eligible to use alternative minimum intensification and greenfield area density targets and those that have requested and been permitted to do so. The figure also indicates the forecasted population and employment growth (2001-2031) for each municipality.
Figure 3.6: Upper- and single-tier municipalities eligible to use alternative targets and using alternative targets
