The table below compares the original forecasts for 2031 (shown as "2031A" in the table) from the Growth Plan introduced in 2006 to the updated forecasts for 2031 ("2031B") from Amendment no. 2 to the Growth Plan. In most cases, the population and employment forecasts have increased. In no case did the updated forecasts result in a decline in population or employment.
When the 2031A and 2031B forecasts are compared, there are some noticeable divergences. In some municipalities the "B" forecasts are at least 10% greater than the "A" forecasts, in other municipalities there is little or no difference. However, an alternative and more telling method to evaluate the differences between the 2031 forecasts is to focus on the change in the total amount of growth, rather than on the total population or employment amounts. The column to the far right indicates the difference between the A-B forecasts and the forecast increase based on the original 2001-2031 forecasts. The "B" forecasts increased the City of Toronto's population growth by 22% or 110,000 people compared to the original forecasts. The greatest difference between the A-B forecasts and the forecast growth 2001-2031 is in County of Peterborough, where the "B" forecasts have increased the forecast population growth by 180%.
Population
|
|
Population Forecast 20011 |
Population Forecast 2031A2 |
Population Forecast 2031B2 |
A-B Difference |
A-B Difference (%) |
Forecast Population Growth 2001-2031A |
% Difference in growth between 'Forecast Population Increase 2001-2031A' and 'A-B Difference' |
|
City of Toronto |
2,590,000 |
3,080,000 |
3,190,000 |
+110,000 |
4% |
490,000 |
22% |
|
Region of Durham |
530,000 |
960,000 |
970,000 |
+10,000 |
1% |
430,000 |
2% |
|
Region of York |
760,000 |
1,500,000 |
1,590,000 |
+90,000 |
6% |
740,000 |
12% |
|
Region of Peel |
1,030,000 |
1,640,000 |
1,770,000 |
+130,000 |
8% |
610,000 |
21% |
|
Region of Halton |
390,000 |
780,000 |
820,000 |
+40,000 |
5% |
390,000 |
10% |
|
City of Hamilton |
510,000 |
660,000 |
680,000 |
+20,000 |
3% |
150,000 |
13% |
|
INNER RING |
5,810,000 |
8,620,000 |
9,020,000 |
+400,000 |
5% |
2,810,000 |
14% |
|
County of Northumberland |
80,000 |
96,000 |
100,000 |
+4,000 |
4% |
16,000 |
25% |
|
County of Peterborough |
56,000 |
61,000 |
70,000 |
+9,000 |
15% |
5,000 |
180% |
|
City of Peterborough |
74,000 |
88,000 |
103,000 |
+15,000 |
17% |
14,000 |
107% |
|
City of Kawartha Lakes |
72,000 |
100,000 |
100,000 |
0 |
0% |
28,000 |
0% |
|
County of Simcoe |
254,000 |
416,000 |
416,000 |
0 |
0% |
162,000 |
0% |
|
City of Barrie |
108,000 |
210,000 |
210,000 |
0 |
0% |
102,000 |
0% |
|
City of Orillia |
30,000 |
41,000 |
41,000 |
0 |
0% |
11,000 |
0% |
|
County of Dufferin |
53,000 |
80,000 |
80,000 |
0 |
0% |
27,000 |
0% |
|
County of Wellington |
85,000 |
122,000 |
122,000 |
0 |
0% |
37,000 |
0% |
|
City of Guelph |
110,000 |
175,000 |
177,000 |
+2,000 |
1% |
65,000 |
3% |
|
Region of Waterloo |
456,000 |
729,000 |
742,000 |
+13,000 |
2% |
273,000 |
5% |
|
County of Brant |
35,000 |
47,000 |
49,000 |
+2,000 |
4% |
12,000 |
17% |
|
City of Brantford |
94,000 |
126,000 |
139,000 |
+13,000 |
10% |
32,000 |
41% |
|
County of Haldimand |
46,000 |
56,000 |
57,000 |
+1,000 |
2% |
10,000 |
10% |
|
Region of Niagara |
427,000 |
511,000 |
543,000 |
+32,000 |
6% |
84,000 |
38% |
|
OUTER RING |
1,980,000 |
2,858,000 |
2,949,000 |
+91,000 |
3% |
878,000 |
10% |
|
GGH TOTAL |
7,790,000 |
11,478,000 |
11,969,000 |
+491,000 |
4% |
3,688,000 |
13% |
1 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, January 2012, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.
2 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, June 2013, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.
Employment
|
|
Employment Forecast 20011 |
Employment Forecast 2031A2 |
Employment Forecast 2031B2 |
A-B Difference |
A-B Difference (%) |
Forecast Employment Growth 2001-2031A |
% Difference in growth between 'Forecast Employment Increase 2001-2031A' and 'A-B Difference' |
|
City of Toronto |
1,440,000 |
1,640,000 |
1,660,000 |
+20,000 |
1% |
160,000 |
13% |
|
Region of Durham |
190,000 |
350,000 |
360,000 |
+10,000 |
3% |
390,000 |
3% |
|
Region of York |
390,000 |
780,000 |
790,000 |
+10,000 |
1% |
200,000 |
5% |
|
Region of Peel |
530,000 |
870,000 |
880,000 |
+10,000 |
1% |
340,000 |
3% |
|
Region of Halton |
780,000 |
390,000 |
390,000 |
0 |
0% |
200,000 |
0% |
|
City of Hamilton |
660,000 |
300,000 |
310,000 |
+10,000 |
3% |
90,000 |
11% |
|
INNER RING |
2,950,000 |
4,330,000 |
4,390,000 |
+60,000 |
1% |
1,380,000 |
4% |
|
County of Northumberland |
29,000 |
33,000 |
36,000 |
+3,000 |
9% |
4,000 |
75% |
|
County of Peterborough |
16,000 |
18,000 |
20,000 |
+2,000 |
11% |
2,000 |
100% |
|
City of Peterborough |
37,000 |
42,000 |
52,000 |
+10,000 |
24% |
5,000 |
200% |
|
City of Kawartha Lakes |
20,000 |
27,000 |
29,000 |
+2,000 |
7% |
7,000 |
29% |
|
County of Simcoe |
85,000 |
132,000 |
132,000 |
0 |
0% |
47,000 |
0% |
|
City of Barrie |
53,000 |
101,000 |
101,000 |
0 |
0% |
48,000 |
0% |
|
City of Orillia |
16,000 |
21,000 |
21,000 |
0 |
0% |
5,000 |
0% |
|
County of Dufferin |
19,000 |
27,000 |
29,000 |
+2,000 |
7% |
8,000 |
25% |
|
County of Wellington |
36,000 |
54,000 |
54,000 |
0 |
0% |
18,000 |
0% |
|
City of Guelph |
36,000 |
92,000 |
94,000 |
+2,000 |
2% |
29,000 |
7% |
|
Region of Waterloo |
236,000 |
366,000 |
366,000 |
0 |
0% |
130,000 |
0% |
|
County of Brant |
16,000 |
19,000 |
22,000 |
+3,000 |
16% |
3,000 |
100% |
|
City of Brantford |
39,000 |
53,000 |
67,000 |
+14,000 |
26% |
14,000 |
100% |
|
County of Haldimand |
17,000 |
20,000 |
22,000 |
+2,000 |
10% |
3,000 |
67% |
|
Region of Niagara |
186,000 |
218,000 |
235,000 |
+17,000 |
8% |
32,000 |
53% |
|
OUTER RING |
870,000 |
1,223,000 |
1,280,000 |
+57,000 |
5% |
355,000 |
16% |
|
GGH TOTAL |
3,810,000 |
5,553,000 |
5,670,000 |
+117,000 |
2% |
1,735,000 |
7% |
1 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, January 2012, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.
2 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, June 2013, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.