Table 3.5 at the end of this section details the municipal intensification rates across the Region. Three trends are clear.
First, in the Inner Ring, all municipalities have adopted the 40% intensification figure, with two exceptions. Since the City of Toronto's municipal jurisdiction is entirely built out, all development there can be considered intensification, and the minimum target is therefore irrelevant. And the Region of Peel has proposed to increase the intensification target over time to 50% by 2026. The remaining Inner Ring municipalities do not appear to be promoting intensification beyond the required minimum rate required by the Growth Plan. That is, what was intended to be a minimum requirement is apparently being treated as a maximum by most municipalities.
Second, in the Outer Ring, of the upper- and single-tier municipalities, nine have adopted the 40% target, five have set lower targets (ranging from 15 to 32%), and only one (Waterloo Region) has opted to set a higher target (45%). Interestingly, those municipalities that have chosen lower targets are not necessarily the most rural or slowest-growing municipalities in the region. Table 3.3 compares the growth rate of each municipality to its intensification rate. Figure 3.2 shows the variation of targets at the level of single- and upper-tier municipalities.
Third, upper-tier municipalities, which have the authority to set minimum intensification targets for their constituent municipalities,[1] have done so in a variety of ways. Some have set the same target rate for all lower-tier municipalities, and some have assigned individual rates for individual lower-tier municipalities, ranging from a low of zero to a high of 95%.
Table 3.3: Intensification rates and population growth forecasts for single- and upper-tier municipalities
|
Municipalities |
2001 Population Forecast1 |
2031 Population Forecast1 |
Forecast Population Increase 2001-2031 |
Forecast Population Increase 2001-2031 (%) |
2041 Population Forecast2 |
Forecast Population Increase 2001-2041 |
% Forecast Population Increase 2001-2041 |
Minimum Intensification Rate Target (%)3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
City of Toronto |
2,590,000 |
3,080,000 |
490,000 |
19% |
3,400,000 |
810,000 |
31% |
Not Applicable4 |
|
Region of Durham |
530,000 |
960,000 |
430,000 |
81% |
1,190,000 |
660,000 |
125% |
40% |
|
Region of York |
760,000 |
1,500,000 |
740,000 |
97% |
1,790,000 |
1,030,000 |
136% |
40% |
|
Region of Peel |
1,030,000 |
1,640,000 |
610,000 |
59% |
1,970,000 |
940,000 |
91% |
40% (50% in 2026) |
|
Region of Halton |
390,000 |
780,000 |
390,000 |
100% |
1,000,000 |
610,000 |
156% |
40% |
|
City of Hamilton |
510,000 |
660,000 |
150,000 |
29% |
780,000 |
270,000 |
53% |
40% |
|
County of Northumberland |
80,000 |
96,000 |
16,000 |
20% |
110,000 |
30,000 |
38% |
40% |
|
County of Peterborough |
56,000 |
61,000 |
5,000 |
9% |
76,000 |
20,000 |
36% |
40% |
|
City of Peterborough |
74,000 |
88,000 |
14,000 |
19% |
115,000 |
41,000 |
55% |
40% |
|
City of Kawartha Lakes |
72,000 |
100,000 |
28,000 |
39% |
107,000 |
35,000 |
49% |
30% |
|
County of Simcoe |
254,000 |
416,000 |
162,000 |
64% |
497,000 |
243,000 |
96% |
32% |
|
City of Barrie |
108,000 |
210,000 |
102,000 |
94% |
253,000 |
145,000 |
134% |
40% |
|
City of Orillia |
30,000 |
41,000 |
11,000 |
37% |
46,000 |
16,000 |
53% |
40% |
|
County of Dufferin |
53,000 |
80,000 |
27,000 |
51% |
85,000 |
32,000 |
60% |
40% |
|
County of Wellington |
85,000 |
122,000 |
37,000 |
44% |
140,000 |
55,000 |
65% |
20% |
|
City of Guelph |
110,000 |
175,000 |
65,000 |
59% |
191,000 |
81,000 |
74% |
40% |
|
Region of Waterloo |
456,000 |
729,000 |
273,000 |
60% |
835,000 |
379,000 |
83% |
45% |
|
County of Brant |
35,000 |
47,000 |
12,000 |
34% |
57,000 |
22,000 |
63% |
15% |
|
City of Brantford |
94,000 |
126,000 |
32,000 |
34% |
163,000 |
69,000 |
73% |
40% |
|
County of Haldimand |
46,000 |
56,000 |
10,000 |
22% |
64,000 |
18,000 |
39% |
32% |
|
Region of Niagara |
427,000 |
511,000 |
84,000 |
20% |
610,000 |
183,000 |
43% |
40% |
1 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, January 2012, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.
2 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, June 2013, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.
3 Upper- and single-tier municipal official plans and correspondence between the Minister of Infrastructure and upper- and single-tier municipalities, See Table 3.5
4 The City of Toronto is fully built out, therefore all development can be considered intensification.
Figure 3.2: Adoption of minimum intensification targets by upper- and single-tier municipalities
What does this patchwork of different rates mean? For one thing, it suggests a somewhat arbitrary and inconsistent distribution of minimum intensification targets across the Region. Waterloo Region, which is planning to achieve a 45% intensification rate at both the upper-tier level and for each of its lower tiers, shares a border with Wellington County, which plans to achieve a 20% intensification rate, and with Brant County, which is using a 15% intensification target.
For another, it means that decisions about growth at the lower-tier level are very much in the hands of upper-tier municipalities, and those municipalities appear to have a range of attitudes towards intensification. Some municipalities appear to have a greater willingness or desire to intensify than others.
Figure 3.3: Minimum intensification targets assigned to lower-tier municipalities
Third, although the basis for lowering the minimum intensification rate is the "size, location, and capacity" of the municipality in question, there appears to be no clear relationship between a municipality's "size, location, and capacity" and its assigned intensification rate. For example, Niagara-on-the-Lake (pop. 15,400) and Port Colborne (pop. 18,400) in Niagara Region are sizable, well-established lakefront communities without obvious servicing constraints, and both have an intensification rate of 15%. By comparison, the small and largely rural communities of North Dumfries (pop. 9,300) or the Township of Havelock-Belmont-Methuen (pop. 4,500) are assigned minimum intensification rates of 45 and 40%, respectively.
A policy in the Growth Plan requires municipalities that were already achieving rates of intensification higher than 40% to maintain those levels.[2] However, this policy would be difficult to implement, because there is no official record of earlier intensification rates that could be used to support this requirement.
Finally, 12 (or 15%) of the 89 lower-tier municipalities in the GGH have been exempted from the minimum intensification target (see Table 3.4). These 12 lower-tier municipalities were considered to have no delineated built-up area (the area to which intensification must be directed) in their municipality. That is, they had only undelineated built-up areas that include rural settlement areas without full municipal services and no development that could be considered a consolidated "urbanized" area.
Interestingly, five other lower-tier municipalities that have undelineated built-up areas (also listed in Table 3.4) have been assigned a 20% intensification target. These municipalities have a higher 2031 population forecast and a higher population growth rate compared with the municipalities using a 0% intensification target. Presumably the intent is to ensure that the existing towns and villages in these municipalities start to develop as more compact communities as they grow over the coming years.
Table 3.4: Minimum intensification rates for lower-tier municipalities without a delineated built boundary
|
Upper-tier Municipality |
Lower-tier Municipality |
Intensification Rate Target1 |
Built-Up Area2 |
2001 Census Population3 |
2001 Adjusted Population4 |
2031 Population Forecast5 |
Population Growth Forecast 2001-20316 |
Population Growth Forecast 2001-2031 (%)6 |
|
County of Northumberland |
Township of Alnwick/Haldimand |
0% |
0 ha |
5,846 |
6,092 |
7,200 |
1,108 |
18% |
|
Township of Hamilton |
0% |
0 ha |
10,785 |
11,238 |
12,080 |
842 |
7% |
|
|
County of Peterborough |
Township of Douro-Dummer |
0% |
0 ha |
6,652 |
6,931 |
7,397 |
466 |
7% |
|
Township of Galway-Cavendish and Harvey |
0% |
0 ha |
4,372 |
4,556 |
4,919 |
363 |
8% |
|
|
Township of North Kawartha |
0% |
0 ha |
2,144 |
2,234 |
2,348 |
114 |
5% |
|
|
Township of Otonabee-South Monaghan |
0% |
0 ha |
6,669 |
6,949 |
7,407 |
458 |
7% |
|
|
County of Dufferin |
Town of Mono |
0% |
0 ha |
6,922 |
7,213 |
9,770 |
2,557 |
35% |
|
Township of Amaranth |
0% |
0 ha |
3,770 |
3,928 |
4,680 |
752 |
19% |
|
|
Township of East Garafraxa |
0% |
0 ha |
2,214 |
2,307 |
3,150 |
843 |
37% |
|
|
Township of Melancthon |
0% |
0 ha |
2,796 |
2,913 |
3,410 |
497 |
17% |
|
|
Township of Mulmur |
0% |
0 ha |
3,099 |
3,229 |
4,290 |
1,061 |
33% |
|
|
Region of Niagara |
Township of Wainfleet |
0% |
0 ha |
6,258 |
6,521 |
8,200 |
1,679 |
26% |
|
County of Wellington |
Town of Puslinch |
20% |
0 ha |
5,885 |
6,132 |
8,200 |
2,068 |
34% |
|
County of Simcoe |
Township of Tiny |
20% |
0 ha |
9,035 |
9,414 |
12,500 |
3,086 |
33% |
|
Township of Ramara |
20% |
0 ha |
8,615 |
8,977 |
13,000 |
4,023 |
45% |
|
|
Township of Oro-Medonte |
20% |
0 ha |
18,315 |
19,084 |
27,000 |
7,916 |
41% |
|
|
Township of Adjala-Tosorontio |
20% |
0 ha |
10,082 |
10,505 |
13,000 |
2,495 |
24% |
1 Upper- and single-tier municipal official plans and correspondence between the Minister of Infrastructure and upper- and single-tier municipalities, See Table 3.5.
2 Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure, Built Boundary for the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 (2008).
3 Statistics Canada, 2001 Community Profiles.
4 The Growth Plan forecasts include an undercount, which adjusts the population to account for people who were not enumerated; therefore to make a valid comparison, the population counts from the 2001 census have been adjusted to include a 4.2% undercount.
5 Lower-tier population allocations in upper-tier municipal official plans. See Appendix D.
6 Calculated using the 2001 Adjusted Population and the 2031 Population Forecast.
Table 3.5: Minimum intensification rate targets, by municipality
|
Municipalities |
Minimum Intensification Rate Target |
Source |
|---|---|---|
|
City of Toronto |
Not Applicable |
- |
|
Region of Durham |
40% |
Regional Official Plan Amendment No. 128, Annotated Consolidation (as approved by the OMB on January 9, 2013 Board Order) |
|
City of Pickering |
40% |
|
|
City of Ajax |
40% |
|
|
City of Whitby |
40% |
|
|
City of Oshawa |
40% |
|
|
Town of Clarington |
40% |
|
|
Township of Uxbridge |
40% |
|
|
Township of Brock |
40% |
|
|
Township of Scugog |
40% |
|
|
Region of York |
40% |
York Region Official Plan, 2010, Annotated Version Showing Policy Status, Office Consolidation January 14, 2013 |
|
City of Vaughan |
Lower-tier municipal minimum intensification target rate is unknown - intensification was reported in number of residential units only. |
|
|
Town of Richmond Hill |
||
|
Town of Aurora |
||
|
City of Markham |
||
|
City of Newmarket |
||
|
Township of King |
||
|
Town of Whitchurch-Stouffville |
||
|
Town of East Gwillimbury |
||
|
Town of Georgina |
||
|
Region of Peel |
40% (50% in 2026) |
Peel Region Official Plan, Working Draft Office Consolidation, February 2013 |
|
Town of Caledon |
40% (50% in 2026) |
|
|
City of Brampton |
40% (50% in 2026) |
|
|
City of Mississauga |
40% (50% in 2026) |
|
|
Region of Halton |
40% |
Halton Official Plan (2009), ROPA 38, December 16, 2009 |
|
Town of Halton Hills |
40% |
|
|
Town of Milton |
40% |
|
|
City of Oakville |
40% |
|
|
City of Burlington |
40% |
|
|
City of Hamilton |
40% |
Urban Hamilton Official Plan, March 16, 2011 |
|
County of Northumberland |
40% |
Letter from Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Brad Duguid to County of Northumberland Warden, Peter Celanty, August 13, 2010 |
|
Town of Brighton |
42% |
|
|
Town of Cobourg |
39% |
|
|
Municipality of Port Hope |
50% |
|
|
Town of Trent Hills |
31% |
|
|
Township of Alnwick/Haldimand |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of Cramahe |
31% |
|
|
Township of Hamilton |
Not Applicable |
|
|
County of Peterborough |
40% |
Peterborough County Official Plan February 28, 2013 |
|
Township of Asphodel-Norwood |
40% |
|
|
Township of Cavan-Monaghan |
40% |
|
|
Township of Douro-Dummer |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of Galway-Cavendish and Harvey |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of Havelock-Belmont-Methuen |
40% |
|
|
Township of North Kawartha |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of Otonabee-South Monaghan |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of Smith-Ennismore-Lakefield |
40% |
|
|
City of Peterborough |
40% |
City of Peterborough OP, Office Consolidation Dec. 31, 2009 |
|
Kawartha Lakes |
30% |
Letter from Minister of Infrastructure, Bob Chiarelli to City of Kawartha Lakes Mayor, Ric McGee, March 30, 2011 |
|
County of Simcoe |
32% |
Letter from Minister of Infrastructure and Minister of Transportation, Bob Chiarelli to County of Simcoe Warden, Cal Patterson, July 9, 2012 |
|
Town of Bradford West Gwillimbury |
20% |
|
|
Town of Collingwood |
40% |
|
|
Town of Innisfil |
33% |
|
|
Town of Midland |
40% |
|
|
Town of New Tecumseth |
40% |
|
|
Town of Penetanguishene |
40% |
|
|
Town of Wasaga Beach |
20% |
|
|
Township of Adjala-Tosorontio |
20% |
|
|
Township of Clearview |
20% |
|
|
Township of Essa |
20% |
|
|
Township of Oro-Medonte |
20% |
|
|
Township of Severn |
20% |
|
|
Township of Springwater |
15% |
|
|
Township of Ramara |
20% |
|
|
Township of Tay |
20% |
|
|
Township of Tiny |
20% |
|
|
City of Barrie |
40% |
City of Barrie OP, Apr. 2010, Office Consolidation March 2011 |
|
City of Orillia |
40% |
Official Plan of the City of Orillia, March 9, 2010 |
|
County of Dufferin |
40% |
Letter from Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Brad Duguid to County of Dufferin Warden, Allen Taylor, August 13, 2010 |
|
Town of Mono |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Town of Orangeville |
50% |
|
|
Town of Shelburne |
38% |
|
|
Township of Amaranth |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of East Garafraxa |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of East Luther-Grand Valley |
12% |
|
|
Township of Melancthon |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of Mulmur |
Not Applicable |
|
|
County of Wellington |
20% |
Letter from Deputy Premier, George Smitherman to County of Wellington Warden, Joanne Ross-Zuj, August 21, 2009 |
|
Township of Centre Wellington |
20% |
|
|
Township of Erin |
20% |
|
|
Town of Guelph/Eramosa |
20% |
|
|
Township of Mapleton |
20% |
|
|
Township of Minto |
20% |
|
|
Town of Puslinch |
20% |
|
|
Township of Wellington North |
20% |
|
|
City of Guelph |
40% |
Official Plan Amendment 39: Conformity with the Planning Framework of the Growth Plan for the GGH, March 17, 2010 |
|
Region of Waterloo |
45% |
Waterloo Region Official Plan, January 24, 2011 |
|
City of Waterloo |
45% |
|
|
City of Kitchener |
45% |
|
|
City of Cambridge |
45% |
|
|
Township of Woolwich |
45% |
|
|
Township of Wellesley |
45% |
|
|
Township of Wilmot |
45% |
|
|
Township of North Dumfries |
45% |
|
|
County of Brant |
15% |
Letter from Minister of Infrastructure, Bob Chiarelli to County of Brant Mayor, Ron Eddy, March 31, 2011 |
|
City of Brantford |
40% |
City of Brantford Official Plan, Consolidation September 2011 |
|
County of Haldimand |
32% |
Letter from Minister of Infrastructure, Bob Chiarelli to County of Haldimand Warden, Ken Hewitt, March 20, 2011 |
|
Region of Niagara |
40% |
Region of Niagara Sustainable Community Policies: Places to Grow/2005 Provincial Policy Statement Conformity and Niagara 2031 Amendment, Amendment 2-2009 of the Official Plan for the Niagara Planning Area as approved on May 28, 2009 by Regional Council and amended through the addition of Policy 4.6.6 |
|
City of Niagara Falls |
40% |
|
|
City of Port Colborne |
15% |
|
|
City of St. Catharines |
95% |
|
|
City of Thorold |
15% |
|
|
City of Welland |
40% |
|
|
Town of Fort Erie |
15% |
|
|
Town of Grimsby |
80% |
|
|
Town of Lincoln |
40% |
|
|
Town of Niagara-on-the-Lake |
15% |
|
|
Town of Pelham |
15% |
|
|
Township of Wainfleet |
Not Applicable |
|
|
Township of West Lincoln |
15% |