What has the Growth Plan achieved?
This research has found that under the policies of the Growth Plan, an additional 19,100 hectares in the Greater Golden Horseshoe have been designated for urban development, in addition to the 88,000 hectares that were designated for development before the Growth Plan was introduced in 2006. In total, 107,100 hectares (1,071 square km) are planned to be urbanized by 2031.
By a remarkable coincidence, the 1,071-square-km figure (an area almost double the area of the City of Toronto) is identical to that in the conclusion of a 2002 study that forecast the extent of urbanization in the Toronto-Related Region between 2000 and 2031.
That 2002 study differs in many important ways from the research conducted for this report. It was "not a planning study but rather a 'What if' assessment of the urban structure and major infrastructure implications 30 years from now under particular assumptions."[1] The study focused on a slightly smaller land area, omitting some of the rural outlying areas that are included in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (see Figure 4.1). It used remote sensing techniques to determine the boundaries of the built-up area. The population and employment forecasts were lower than those used for the Growth Plan. It was based on straight-line forecasts for demographic change, employment growth, land and development economics, and consumer preferences. It cannot in any way be considered an "apples-to-apples" comparison.
Nevertheless, what is striking is the response to the study's finding that under current or "business-as-usual" development patterns, an area almost twice the size of the City of Toronto would be urbanized between 2000 and 2031. The 1,071-sq-km figure concerned planners and decision makers alike, and was among the motivators for creating the Growth Plan in the first place. The Province cited the study in background documents prepared as the Growth Plan was being developed. To quote from A Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, a discussion paper published by the Government of Ontario in 2004:
If we continue to consume land for urban development at the rate we have been for the past three decades, we will jeopardize the financial, social and environmental factors that make the region so attractive to new residents and new economic growth. Business-as-usual development will consume 1,000 sq km [sic] of primarily agricultural land by 2031, an area twice the size of Toronto.[2]
And yet, as this report shows, what was considered an unacceptable level of urbanization for the region in 2004 has now become entrenched in municipal official plans.
Figure 4.1: Comparison between the BAU study area and the Greater Golden Horseshoe growth plan area
In fact, the BAU study estimated that 106,900 hectares would be urbanized between 2000 and 2031, for a total of 343,900 urbanized hectares in its study area. The amount of land proposed for new growth under the Growth Plan is 107,100 hectares. If that number is adjusted to reflect the smaller study area used in the Business-as-Usual study, the total is 99,600 hectares (see Table 4.1).
Table 4.2 compares the population and employment forecasts under the Growth Plan and compares them with those used in the Business-as-Usual study to provide a figure for gross density across the region. Although the comparison is not exact, it is interesting to note that under the Growth Plan, gross densities are not expected to change very much, whereas the Business-as-Usual study assumed a gradual increase in densities over time, despite its straight-line projections about growth, development patterns, and consumer preferences.
Table 4.1: Comparison of urbanized extent under the Growth Plan and in the Business-as-Usual study
|
|
Growth Plan (GGH) |
Growth Plan, adjusted for the smaller study area |
BAU Study |
|
Built-Up Area (as of 2006) |
329,800 ha1 |
319,300 ha |
237,000 ha |
|
Designated Greenfield Areas (as of 2006) |
87,900 ha2 |
80,600 ha |
106,900 ha |
|
New Designated Greenfield Areas (added since 2006) |
19,100 ha2 |
19,000 ha |
|
|
Total Designated Greenfield Areas |
107,100 ha |
99,600 ha |
|
|
Total Urbanized Land Area in 2031 |
436,900 ha |
418,900 ha |
343,900 ha |
1 Built Boundary for the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 (2008), Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.
2 Calculated by the Neptis Foundation as determined through the review of municipal official plans, official plan amendments, and other planning documents; see Appendix A for methodology, Appendix B for sources, and Appendix C for the land area inventory by municipality.
* Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding.
Table 4.2: Population and employment forecasts and gross density in 2031 under the Growth Plan and in the Business-as-Usual study
|
|
Growth Plan (GGH) |
Growth Plan, adjusted for smaller study area |
BAU Study |
|
Population in 2031 |
11.5 million1 |
11.5 million |
10.5 million |
|
Employment in 2031 |
5.5 million1 |
5.4 million |
5.4 million |
|
Total population and jobs combined in 2031 |
17.0 million1 |
16.6 million |
15.9 million |
|
Total urbanized land area in 20312 |
436,900 ha |
418,900 ha |
343,900 ha |
|
Gross Density |
38.5 p+j/ha |
39.7 p+j/ha |
46.5 p+j/ha |
1 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, January 2012, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.
2 See Table 4.1
Table 4.3 provides a breakdown of the gross densities for the Inner and Outer Ring in 2006 prior to the introduction of the Growth Plan in 2006. Table 4.4 provides a breakdown of the gross densities in 2031 25 years after the Growth Plan was established. Note that there is very little difference between the gross densities in 2006 (prior to the establishment of the Growth Plan) versus 2031 (following 25 years of development subject to the Growth Plan).
Table 4.3: 2006 gross densities, Inner Ring, Outer Ring and the GGH
|
|
Inner Ring |
Outer Ring |
GGH TOTAL |
|
Population in 20061 |
6,322,000 |
2,119,000 |
8,441,000 |
|
Employment in 20061 |
3,186,000 |
959,000 |
4,145,000 |
|
Total population and jobs combined in 2006 |
9,508,000 |
3,078,000 |
12,586,000 |
|
Built-Up Area (as of 2006)2 |
225,000 ha |
104,800 ha |
329,800 ha |
|
Gross Density |
42.3 p + j/hectare |
29.4 p + j/hectare |
38.2 p + j/hectare |
1 Hemson Consulting Ltd., Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts to 2041, Technical Report, November 2012.
2 Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure, Built Boundary for the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 (2008).
Table 4.4: 2031 gross densities, Inner Ring, Outer Ring and the GGH
|
|
Inner Ring |
Outer Ring |
GGH TOTAL |
|
Population in 20311 |
8,620,000 |
2,880,000 |
11,500,000 |
|
Employment in 20311 |
4,330,000 |
1,240,000 |
5,570,000 |
|
Total population and jobs combined in 2031 |
12,950,000 |
4,120,000 |
17,070,000 |
|
Built-Up Area (as of 2006)2 |
225,000 ha |
104,800 ha |
329,800 ha |
|
Designated Greenfield Area (as of 2006)3 |
45,200 ha |
42,800 ha |
88,000 ha |
|
New Designated Greenfield Area (added since 2006) 3 |
11,000 ha |
8,100 ha |
19,100 ha |
|
Total urbanized land area in 2031 |
281,200 ha |
155,700 ha |
436,900 ha |
|
Gross Density |
46.1 p+j/hectare |
26.5 p+j/hectare |
39.1 p+j/hectare |
1 Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure, Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, January 2012.
2 Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure, Built Boundary for the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 (2008).
3 Calculated by the Neptis Foundation as determined through the review of municipal official plans, official plan amendments, and other planning documents; see Appendix A for methodology, Appendix B for sources, and Appendix C for the land area inventory by municipality.
* Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding.
It is also interesting to compare these findings with claims by the development industry that the Growth Plan is restricting the supply of land and thereby driving up the price of housing.[3] On the contrary, the Growth Plan is not restricting the amount of land available for development. Through the process of bringing municipal planning documents into conformity with the Growth Plan, municipalities have designated almost the same amount of land under the Growth Plan as they might have without the Growth Plan.