Simulations

Source: Will Dunning Inc.

Implications for immigration:

• In 2001 the shares of immigration for the Inner Ring and the GGH were somewhat higher than the simulated rate. In 2001 and 2002, the Inner Ring and Greater Golden Horseshoe shares of immigration were elevated. For the years on either side, the actual and simulated results are closer together. It is unclear at this point whether the 2001 and 2002 results were temporary aberrations or represent permanent shifts in the relationships.
• Based on the relationships estimated using 18 years of data, it appears that the Inner Ring and the Greater Golden Horseshoe will experience gradual erosion in their shares of Canada's immigration. During the 2001-to-2031 period, the Inner Ring share would be similar to the rate seen in the mid-1990s.
• These projected rates can be used to project actual numbers of immigrants. The 2005 Hemson report Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (page 20) assumed that immigration to Canada will average 218,000 people per year from 2001 to 2006, and just under 210,000 for the remainder of the projection period. Using this assumption, and applying the projected shares shown above, it is possible to calculate anticipated average annual immigration figures for the Inner Ring, Outer Ring, and Greater Golden Horseshoe, as shown in Table 4. For the Inner Ring, immigration is projected to total almost 2.7 million over the 30-year period, or slightly less than 90,000 people per year.

Implications for emigration:

• The rates of emigration (as percentages of the populations of each area) are assumed to remain at the 1997-2004 level. As the population increases, therefore, the number of emigrants will also rise. For the entire 30-year period, about 550,000 people are expected to leave the GGH for other countries, an average of about 18,000 people per year.

Implications for net immigration (immigration minus emigration):

• The total contribution to population growth in the Greater Golden Horseshoe over the 30-year period would be about 2.33 million. Annual net contributions from immigration would fall over time, as immigration falls (slightly) and emigration increases. From 2001 to 2011, the contribution would be about 80,700 people per year; between 2021 and 2031 it would be about 75,300 people per year.

Implications for net interprovincial migration:

• The simulated migration rates for 2001 were close to the actual rates for both the Inner Ring and the GGH, but less close for the Outer Ring.
• The actual data indicate that net interprovincial migration has deteriorated with the economic slowdown in the GTA. In the Inner Ring, net interprovincial migration has fallen from a peak of about 10,100 in 1999-2000 to less than zero (about -3,200) in 2003-2004. For the GGH, the numbers have fallen from a peak of +13,100 in 1999-2000 to -4,400 in 2003-2004. Based on the assumption of a normal economic performance (on average) in the years up to 2031, the projections indicate that central Ontario could lose population to other provinces.
• In Table 4, the projected rates for net interprovincial migration are applied to the projected population of the rest of Canada, to determine migration for the period up to 2031. The results indicate that from 2001 to 2031, the Greater Golden Horseshoe would lose about 187,000 people to other provinces. The average annual rate of out-migration would be low from 2001 to 2011 (averaging -1,500 people per year) and would increase to about -11,100 people per year from 2021 to 2031.